The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and National Security (Vezarat-e Ettela’at Jomhuri-e Eslami) along with the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC or Pasdaran) are learning to conduct electronic warfare in real-time, but are carrying it out in a particularly Iranian way.
Much like the police response so far in the streets, they have largely avoided draconian responses to demonstrators. They continue to throttle internet connectivity and conduct spotty blockages of sites, but have not shut down Internet access – even in response to external Denial of Service attacks launched from abroad. They have throttled cell phone networks, but this too has been spotty and rather selective. Reports are circulating that they appear to be trying to round up Twitter account holders, but given the continuous stream of posts by known opposition members, they are either very bad at what they do or are holding back. Or this itself is a rumor, purposefully planted (which, if true, is producing exactly the opposite effect intended).
One reason for the authorities to stifle, bully, and threaten but not completely suppress the protesters is to create opportunities for spoofing accounts on various social media sites like Twitter, claiming to be anti-government protesters and spreading all manner of rumors. In one instance quickly identified as being false, a report of large Army contingent – with tanks, no less – was approaching Tehran.
Another reason for the particular approach relates more directly to the nature and current state of Iranian politics, and the need to create a space for negotiation in the coming weeks. It’s in no group’s interest to simply mass-arrest or kill large numbers of demonstrators. Deploying the Basiji thugs is one thing; sending in the Army and IRGC regulars to clean house is quite another. At the same time, the protests have weakened the current leadership in ways it may not yet fully appreciate, which adds considerable risk and uncertainty to the current situation and whatever backroom dealing ensues. Either way, this past week and the next few weeks ahead could set a very different course for the country.
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